Hit rate per segment
| Segment | Count | Per spin | Once in | Expected per 90 rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leaf 1 | 23 | 43.40% | 2.3 | 39.1 |
| Leaf 2 | 23 | 43.40% | 2.3 | 39.1 |
| Lil’ Blues | 4 | 7.55% | 13.3 | 6.8 |
| Big Oranges | 2 | 3.77% | 26.5 | 3.4 |
| Huge Reds | 1 | 1.89% | 53.0 | 1.7 |
| Any fish | 7 | 13.21% | 7.6 | 11.9 |
How often nothing happens
The expected count is the number people quote; the number that shapes a session is how often it fails to arrive.
Over ninety rounds Huge Reds is expected 1.7 times, but the chance of seeing it zero times is about 18%. Roughly one hour in five contains none at all. That is ordinary variance rather than evidence of anything, and knowing it in advance is the difference between a dull hour and a frustrating one.
The compounding runs the other way too. A 50% chance of seeing Huge Reds accumulates after 37 rounds — sooner than the 53 the hit rate suggests, because each round adds to the total. The intuition that a segment is due after fifty-three rounds is wrong in both directions.
The round history
Operators display the last several results. It is worth being clear about what that display is for: it is a feature of the interface, not a source of information.
Each spin is drawn independently, so a run of leaf results tells you nothing about the next spin, and a segment that has not appeared is not owed one. Systems built on tracking hot and cold segments are reading noise, and no arrangement of bets built on that reading changes the edge. What can actually be controlled.